A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
